A new Hebrew University study reveals that while Israel could technically sustain itself through local vegetative food production, the economic price would be staggering. The model shows that complete self-sufficiency would demand massive farming subsidies and major shifts in agricultural output, making it an impractical goal. Instead, the researchers argue, a balanced approach, combining agricultural innovation, diversified import sources, and strategic food storage, offers the most sustainable path to national food security.

 

 

When wars, pandemics, and trade disruptions shake global markets, one question becomes urgent for every nation: can we feed ourselves? A new study from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem offers an answer—and a warning. According to researchers Prof. Iddo Kan, Prof. Israel Finkelshtain, PhD student Yehuda Slater, and Prof. Aron M. Troen, achieving full food self-sufficiency in Israel is technically possible—but only for plant-based foods intended for human consumption, not for livestock feed. In other words, during a severe import blockade, Israel’s food system could sustain a vegetarian population, but not maintain its current levels of animal-based production.

 

The research team developed an advanced partial equilibrium model, named VALUE (Vegetative Agriculture Land Use Economics), to assess how much of Israel’s dietary needs could be supplied locally by the agricultural sector. Applying the model to Israel’s 2019 agricultural data, the researchers found that the country could meet the EAT–Lancet Commission’s recommended vegetative diet, but only with major shifts in production- and at a significant welfare cost.

 

The Cost of Full Self-Sufficiency

“Food self-sufficiency is often viewed as a symbol of national resilience,” explains Prof. Iddo Kan, the study’s lead author from the Department of Environmental Economics and Management. “But our findings show that pursuing full autarky would demand vast public subsidies, reduce farm diversity, and severely impact the economic welfare of producers and consumers alike.”

 

“Food self-sufficiency is often viewed as a symbol of national resilience. But our findings show that pursuing full autarky would demand vast public subsidies, reduce farm diversity, and severely impact the economic welfare of producers and consumers alike.” - Prof. Iddo Kan

 

The study shows that increasing self-sufficiency would require diverting agricultural resources away from Israel’s strengths, fresh fruits and vegetables, toward storable crops such as cereals, oils, and legumes. While these crops require less water and labor, they are land-intensive, making arable land the key limiting factor.

 

Under current conditions, reaching full self-sufficiency would result in an annual welfare loss of approximately $1.5 billion, with farmers bearing most of the burden. Subsidizing such a policy, the authors warn, would require government spending exceeding the sector’s total annual profits.

 

The researchers also found that while Israel could self-supply the plant-based food needs of its current population, it will not be able to do so for future generations without expanding agricultural land, boosting productivity, or developing substantial food storage capacities. This finding underscores the urgency of forward-looking planning as Israel’s population grows.

 

A Framework for Future Food Policy

Beyond the economic findings, the study provides a framework for policymakers to weigh trade-offs between self-sufficiency, food security, and sustainability. It suggests that a balanced strategy, combining local production, storage of staple crops, agricultural innovation, and diversified imports, offers the most viable path forward.

 

The research comes at a crucial moment. Recent global and regional crises, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping, have exposed Israel’s vulnerability to external shocks. The authors note that their model has already been incorporated into the National Plan for Food Security 2050, initiated by Israel’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, serving as a key decision-making tool for future food policies.

 

As Prof. Kan concludes, “Our goal isn’t to argue against local agriculture, far from it. It’s to help design smarter policies that strengthen national food security without undermining the very farmers we depend on.”

 

The research paper titled “Economic analysis of food self-sufficiency: modeling and application to the case of Israel” is now available in Food Policy and can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102979.